Democrats are feeling optimistic about their chances of retaking control of at least one house of Congress in next year’s midterm elections.
The Democrats have two factors in their favor.
The party that controls the White House historically has lost seats in midterm elections, and Donald Trump’s low popularity ratings early in his second term would suggest that the Republican president could be a drag for GOP congressional candidates wherever the race is expected to be close.
Also, the numbers in the Senate especially bode well for Democrats. Of the 35 seats that will be contested in 2026, almost two-thirds of them are now held by Republicans. Thus, in raw math only, the GOP is twice as susceptible to losing Senate seats as is the Democratic Party.
The issue for Democrats is where to put their resources to try to gain the four seats they’ll need to retake control of the Senate. Surprisingly, according to recent news media reports, Mississippi’s junior senator, Cindy Hyde-Smith, could be one of the targets.
The New York Times said that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer doesn’t think Democrats should write off Mississippi as a solidly red state, for two reasons: its large African American population, which votes overwhelmingly Democratic, and the comparatively inexpensive price tag to run a competitive media campaign in a state of Mississippi’s size.
There’s already speculation about a supposedly formidable Democratic challenger: Scott Colom, a Black district attorney from Columbus, whose nomination to the federal bench was blocked by Hyde-Smith during the Biden administration.
Although that would make for an interesting matchup, the Democrats are being delusional if they really believe Mississippi will be in play in 2026.
Mississippi has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982, and back then the Democrats who were successful were closer in political ideology to today’s Republicans.
Plus, what the national Democrats see as advantages in Mississippi are the same that existed in Hyde-Smith’s two prior successful Senate races: a special election in 2018, and the regular election in 2020, when she won a full six-year term. In both contests, she defeated Mike Espy by comfortable margins. The Black former congressman and secretary of agriculture was much better known statewide than Colom is, but Espy couldn’t get over the demographic hump that has plagued Democrats ever since conservative white Democrats bolted for the GOP. Espy had the Black vote locked up, but it takes about 20% of the white vote to win statewide. If Espy couldn’t do it, it’s doubtful any Democratic challenger can.
In the Southern states where Democrats have been faring better, such as Georgia, they tend to be more urban and have a more sizable influx of residents from other parts of the country. Mississippi is just not there on either count.
Besides, this state has a long history of returning incumbents easily to Washington. It also has been one of the most supportive of Trump in all three of his presidential races. Although the president might be an electoral drag on some Senate candidates, his oft-voiced backing of Hyde-Smith will continue to play well for her in Mississippi.
Politics can certainly be unpredictable, and a lot can happen in a year and a half’s time. Should the U.S. secretary of agriculture’s job come open, for instance, Hyde-Smith could again become a top consideration for that cabinet post. But as the situation now stands, it would be shocking for her to not win reelection next year. And even if she were to willingly give up her seat, another Republican would almost certainly succeed her.
