(column)
After watching the NFL Conference Championships Games on Sunday, my immediate reaction was to pick the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. My thinking is that I should usually pick the team with the best quarterback for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is definitely considered a better quarterback than Brock Purdy of the Niners.
But, is this true.
So, for this column I have decided to go back and examine if the team who has the “perceived” better quarterback going into the Super Bowl usually wins.
There are a few caveats to this column.
1. I am only going back to the Super Bowls that I remember. The first Super Bowl I remember is the 1981 Super Bowl between the San Francisco 49ers and the Cincinnati Bengals.
I am starting at this date because I really can’t say who was the better quarterback going into the Super Bowls before I can remember. For example, going into the 1976 Super Bowl (the 1976 season) was Fran Tarkenton of the Minnesota Viking considered a better quarterback than Ken Stabler. Quite frankly, I don’t know the answer to this.
2. This column is about who is the better “perceived” quarterback heading into the Super Bowl. This is to examine my thesis. So, the quarterback who is perceived to be the better QB may not always turn out to be the better quarterback. For example, heading into the 2001 Super Bowl Kurt Warner was perceived to be a better quarterback than Tom Brady. We all know that Tom Brady would go on to be the best quarterback of all time, but before the game Kurt Warner and the Greatest Show on Turf was looking for their second Super Bowl trophy and Tom Brady was just a mid-season replacement.
See how this can get tricky? In 2020, for example, when Tom Brady played for Tampa Bay he was more of a game manager while Patrick Mahomes was considered a more dynamic player so Mahomes would have gotten the edge going into the game.
3. Some of these past Super Bowls seemed to be toss ups heading into the game about who is the better quarterback. For example, was Troy Aikman considered to be a better quarterback than Jim Kelly entering the 1993 Super Bowl? Aikman and the Cowboys had beaten Jim Kelly and the Bills the previous year in the 1992 Super Bowl, but many people would argue, at the time, that Kelly was the more accomplished player. So, for these “toss up” games, I am just going to pick a quarterback who I think was considered marginally better. Feel free to argue with me.
So, here we go.
The better “perceived quarterback” will be on the left column and the lesser “perceived quarterback” will be on the right column. I have then put the winning quarterback in bold.
Better Qb Worse Qb
1981 Joe Montana Ken Anderson
1982 Joe Theismann David Woodley
1983 Joe Theismann Jim Plunkett
1984 Dan Marino Joe Montana
1985 Jim McMahon Tony Eason
1986 John Elway Phil Simms
1987 John Elway Doug Williams
1988 Joe Montana Boomer Esiason
1989 Joe Montana John Elway
1990 Jim Kelly Jeff Hostetler
1991 Jim Kelly Mark Rypien
1992 Jim Kelly Troy Aikman
1993 Jim Kelly Troy Aikman
1994 Steve Young Stan Humphries
1995 Troy Aikman Neil O’Donnell
1996 Brett Favre Drew Bledsoe
1997 John Elway Brett Favre
1998 John Elway Chris Chandler
1999 Kurt Warner Steve McNair
2000 Kerry Collins Trent Dilfer
2001 Kurt Warner Tom Brady
2002 Rich Gannon Brad Johnson
2003 Tom Brady Jake Delhome
2004 Tom Brady Donovan McNabb
2005 Ben Roetglisberger Matt Hasselbeck
2006 Peyton Manning Rex Grossman
2007 Tom Brady Eli Manning
2008 Ben Roethlisberger Kurt Warner
2009 Peyton Manning Drew Brees
2010 Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger
2011 Tom Bray Eli Manning
2012 olin Kaepernick Joe Flacco
2013 Peyton Manning Russell Wilson
2014 Tom Brady Russell Wilson
2015 Peyton Manning Cam Newton
2016 Tom Brady Matt Ryan
2017 Tom Bray Nick Foles
2018 Tom Brady Jared Goff
2019 Patrick Mahomes Jimmy Garoppolo
2020 Patrick Mahomes Tom Brady
2021 Matthew Stafford Joe Burrow
2022 Patrick Mahomes Jalen Hurts
So, there you have it!
Based on my truly unscientific results, the better “perceived” quarterback has won 24 of the last 42 Super Bowls.
These results sort of go against my theory because it is much more split than I thought it would be. These results would been a lot different if John Elway and Jim Kelly could have pulled out some more Super Bowl victories.
Maybe the 49ers and Brock Purdy have a better chance than I thought?
David W. Healy is the sports editor of the Delta Democrat-Times. He can be reached at dhealy@ddtonline.com
