RIVER FORECAST...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVERLOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTERNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SLIDELL LA1027AM CDT WED JUL 16 2025PROJ FLOW TDA D1 D2 D3 D4 D5BARKLEY DAM 19 14 16 16 14 14KENTUCKY DAM 30 37 37 37 22 22RIVER STAGE FORECASTS (A)BVSTATION FS 6AM 24HR ....F O R E C A S T..... (B)LO STG CHG 0717 0718 0719 0720 0721 CREST/DATE FSOHIO RIVERSMITHLAND TW 40 13.1 +0.9 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.8PADUCAH 39 15.8 +0.7 16.1 16.0 16.3 16.2 16.3CAIRO 40 21.9 -0.4 22.3 23.1 23.5 23.3 23.2MISSISSIPPI RIVERCAPE GIRARDEAU 32 23.7 +0.3 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.2 23.8HICKMAN 34 15.3 -0.6 15.6 16.3 16.8 16.8 16.7NEW MADRID 34 11.7 -0.5 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.2 13.2TIPTONVILLE 37 16.0 -0.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.3 17.2CARUTHERSVILLE 32 14.4 -0.1 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.2OSCEOLA 28 7.1 +0.0 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.6 7.8MEMPHIS 34 7.6 -0.1 7.4 7.2 7.3 7.7 8.0MHOON LANDING 30 6.8 -0.2 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.8 7.1HELENA 44 15.5 -0.1 15.3 15.2 15.0 15.2 15.5ARKANSAS CITY 37 18.8 -0.6 18.4 18.0 17.8 17.7 17.9GREENVILLE 48 30.6 -0.7 30.1 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3VICKSBURG 43 28.9 -1.1 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.0NATCHEZ 48 38.4 -1.0 37.6 36.8 36.1 35.6 35.1RED RIVER LNDG 48 41.7 -0.8 40.9 40.2 39.6 38.8 38.4BATON ROUGE 35 25.8 -0.7 24.9 24.3 23.6 23.0 22.4DONALDSONVILLE 27 16.9 -0.6 16.5 16.1 15.8 15.7 15.3RESERVE 22 12.6 -0.4 12.3 12.1 11.9 11.8 11.5NEW ORLEANS /17/ 8.5 -0.3 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 7.9/ /LEVEES PROTECT CITY OF NEW ORLEANS TO 20 FT STAGE.ALL STAGE FORECASTS INCLUDE 48 HOURS OF FUTURE RAINFALL.END LMRFC
Mississippi River Levels at Greenville Climb, Reflecting Shifting Flood Trends
The Mississippi River’s rise through the spring of 2025 sent waters surging near flood stage at Greenville, a recurring reminder of the region’s evolving relationship with one of the nation's largest rivers.
Over the last six months, river gauges near Greenville have routinely recorded levels hovering between 31 to 52 feet, peaking above 41 feet as summer approached. In April, the river was forecast to crest at 52.5 feet, perilously close to the minor flood threshold of 48 feet, prompting emergency agencies to prepare for potential power outages and port closures.
While this year’s high water caused concern, historical context reveals that such levels, though significant, are not unprecedented. The record crest at Greenville remains 65.4 feet, set during the catastrophic 1927 flood that inundated the Delta and displaced thousands. More recently, the river reached 64.2 feet during the 2011 floods, submerging roads and prompting mass evacuations.
| Year |
Crest (ft) |
Event Description |
| 1927 |
65.4 |
Levee breach, catastrophic flooding |
| 2011 |
64.2 |
Major modern flood, evacuations |
| 2025 |
~52.5* |
High water, near minor flood stage |
*2025 crest based on forecasts and available recent observations.
A Pattern of Elevated Flood RISK
In the decades since 1973, Greenville and other points along the Lower Mississippi have seen higher and more frequent floods. The river now exceeds flood stage at Greenville about eight out of every ten years, a sharp rise from earlier in the 20th century when such events occurred less often. Experts cite shifts in rainfall patterns, channel modifications, and sediment buildup as contributing factors.
This report compiled using Perplexity AI.
